Ofer Winter's Party Fails Election Threshold, Shifting Political Landscape

Ofer Winter's "Am Israel" party will not pass the electoral threshold, according to a new "Zman Israel" poll, significantly impacting the projected seat distribution in the Knesset. The survey, conducted by political consultant Yossi Tatika in collaboration with the Adgenda panel, shows the "change bloc" led by Gadi Eisenkot securing 55 seats. The incumbent coalition bloc, headed by Benjamin Netanyahu, is projected to receive 51 seats, while Arab parties collectively hold 14 seats.

This week's poll indicates a rise for the Ra'am party, which gained six seats following the addition of former MK Yoav Seglovitz as its second-ranked candidate. The Joint List, an alliance of Hadash, Ta'al, and Balad, is polling at eight seats. Shas also shows strength, reaching nine seats.

Leading the overall standings, Gadi Eisenkot's "Yesh" party holds 24 seats, two more than the Likud party's 22. Naftali Bennett's "Yachad" party is projected to win 14 seats.

The poll also explored public opinion on coalition formation if no bloc achieves the required 61 seats for a majority. Among all respondents, new elections are the most preferred option, narrowly ahead of a unity government. However, supporters of the anti-Netanyahu bloc favor a minority government, while Netanyahu's supporters prefer a unity government.

The survey was conducted on September 16-17, 2026, with 500 Jewish and Arab respondents. The margin of error is 4.4%. Yossi Tatika, owner of Tatika Communications and Tatika Research and Media, has consulted for various political and social clients. Roey Schindler, owner of Adgenda panel, is an expert in polling and social media, with prior experience as director-general of the Labor Party.