Poll Shows Netanyahu's Likud at Historic Low, But Opposition Fragmented

A new poll conducted by Maariv indicates that the Likud party, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has fallen to a historic low of 19 seats in the Knesset. This represents a significant decline for the ruling party, with its seat count not seen in over a year. The opposition bloc, comprising Zionist parties, collectively holds 58 seats, while Arab parties secure 12 seats.

The survey also revealed that the undecided voter percentage has decreased from 11% to 7.5% following the finalization of party lists. In a hypothetical head-to-head for prime minister, Benny Gantz maintains a double-digit lead over Netanyahu, with 50% preferring Gantz compared to Netanyahu's 38%. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett also leads Netanyahu in this matchup, 45% to 40%.

Notably, the new party founded by Ofer Winter has crossed the electoral threshold, securing 25 seats according to the poll. This development could significantly alter the political landscape. Despite the Likud's struggles, the coalition bloc shows some strengthening, though the specific numbers for Likud remain concerning.

Regarding emigration intentions, 79% of respondents stated they would remain in Israel even if their chosen party does not lead the government after the elections. However, 9% are considering leaving, with an additional 12% undecided. Among opposition voters, about 15% are contemplating emigration if their party is not in power, though only 2% are certain about leaving.

The poll was conducted on September 9-10, with 601 respondents out of 4,329 individuals invited to participate, representing a margin of error of 4%. Several smaller parties, including HaMillyamnikim, HaKalkalit, Blue and White, Noam LeYisrael, and HaTzibbur HaHaredi, failed to pass the electoral threshold.