Intelligence Warned Netanyahu of Gaza Escalation Before Oct. 7

Israeli military intelligence warned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of a potential large-scale escalation, including in the Gaza Strip, two and a half months before the October 7th attack, according to a report by Ronen Bergman in Ynet. Military censors recently allowed the publication of a specific warning from July 23, 2023, a letter sent by Brigadier General Amit Saar, head of the Military Intelligence Directorate's research division, to Netanyahu. This warning came amid the government's push to advance judicial reforms, which security officials cautioned would weaken Israel and embolden its enemies. Saar's letter explicitly warned that the Middle East was on the verge of an explosion and that Israel was perceived as weakened due to internal divisions, highlighting threats on all fronts, including Gaza.

Saar's letter cited statements from Hezbollah and Iran, as well as Hamas leadership's assessments of the situation. It also referenced a message received through a secret Israeli communication channel with Hamas, codenamed "Srugim," which operated via a relative of a senior Hamas official. The letter warned, "There are many fuses that can lead to an explosion. Extremists in your government are leading to these fuses being lit and the fire engulfing the entire region. Only you will bear responsibility for the consequences." Bergman noted the emphasis on "fuses," "extremists in your government," and "only you will bear responsibility."

Bergman also detailed the existence of "back channels" for direct, deniable communication between Israel and Hamas prior to October 7th. These channels, operating outside official means, conveyed highly classified information. In September 2023, a message indicated that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar intended to present "something that will cause an earthquake and lead to the release of all prisoners" by the end of the month. Four sources familiar with these channels stated that their existence was part of Netanyahu's policy of "managing the conflict," aiming for extended quiet by viewing Hamas as an asset to counter the Palestinian Authority.

These secret lines, "Srugim" and "Akel," were intended to convey Hamas leadership's positions directly, preventing miscalculations and facilitating dialogue. In 2023, negotiations via these channels concerned the return of Avraham Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed, as well as the bodies of Hadar Goldin and Oron Shaul. While disagreements over the number of Palestinian prisoners Hamas demanded were narrowed, Netanyahu reportedly refused to convene a ministerial committee for further talks due to fears of leaks. The "Akel" channel relayed Sinwar's "earthquake" warning in mid-September 2023, causing significant alarm and prompting urgent meetings within the Israeli intelligence community, with some interpreting it as a warning of a major Hamas operation.

Bergman also addressed reports that UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed personally warned Netanyahu of an impending Hamas operation, which Netanyahu has categorically denied. If the call occurred, it could have independently corroborated intelligence received by Israel. Bergman suggests that such a convergence of warnings from two distinct sources should have triggered serious alarm and a reassessment of the situation within any global intelligence agency.