Iran May Strike Israel Again, Allies Targeted Amid US Election Pressure

Iran may escalate attacks against U.S. allies in the Middle East and potentially strike Israel for the first time since April 2026, according to an Israeli source familiar with the situation assessments, as reported by Ynet on Saturday, September 5. This potential escalation is seen as a strategy to exhaust U.S. President Donald Trump and compel Washington back to negotiations, a possibility also noted by The New York Times. Iran's internal difficulties are also cited as a reason for potential aggression, with Tehran recognizing that time is not on the side of its regime, especially with U.S. midterm elections in November 2026 potentially diminishing its leverage over Trump.

The Israeli source indicated an increasing likelihood of Iran attacking Israel, a move it has so far avoided. An alternative scenario involves Iran using allied groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis as a "first tool" to weaken Israeli defenses and signal intent, while Iran itself attempts to conceal its direct involvement initially. The period of Jewish autumn holidays is historically considered a "favorable" time for attacks on Israel, the source noted, suggesting recent rocket strikes on Jordan, including Aqaba, could be a precursor to an Israeli target.

Escalation in Lebanon is also possible, particularly after the IDF cleared a Hezbollah underground complex under the Ali Taher ridge, where Hezbollah fighters and Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps "advisors" were reportedly trapped. Hezbollah might increase attacks on Israeli soldiers following this, but direct Iranian intervention is not ruled out. Reuters reported on September 3 that Iran had warned the U.S. in August 2026 of a "forceful response" to any Israeli strike on the Ali Taher ridge.

Recent U.S. intelligence reports, cited by The New York Times, suggest Iran is more confident in its ability to strike targets across the Middle East and intends to continue its confrontation at least until the U.S. midterm elections. Hardliners within the Iranian regime are reportedly gaining influence and considering significant escalation, making a comprehensive ceasefire agreement more difficult given Iran's clearer understanding of its military capabilities after six months of conflict.

In response to these assessments, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned that an Iranian attack on Israel would "free Israel from all existing restrictions" on actions against Tehran. He stated the IDF would strike "all of Iran's national military and civilian infrastructure," including energy facilities. Katz attributed potential Iranian desperation to severe economic pressure and fear of internal revolt, suggesting these circumstances "may push them to desperate steps." He asserted Israel's readiness for any scenario, both defensively and offensively, adding that the IDF is "ready to complete the task." The Israeli source explained Katz's public threat as a measure to deter potential enemies and minimize the chances of a surprise attack.