US and Israel Plan New Strikes on Iran Amid Tensions

The United States and Israel are reportedly preparing for a potential escalation of conflict with Iran, with military forces developing concrete plans for a new wave of attacks. According to the "New York Times," these strikes could commence after the U.S. midterm elections on November 3rd, aiming to pressure the Iranian regime into making concessions regarding its nuclear program and control over the Strait of Hormuz. The planned operation is described as short but intense, involving heightened military exercises, including fighter jet maneuvers over Iraq.

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth discussed these options with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel this week. Potential targets include Iranian energy facilities, nuclear program sites, and stockpiles of missiles and drones. Some U.S. planners believe a three-day offensive could significantly damage Iran's economy, forcing a reassessment of its negotiating stance. Previous military actions, sanctions, and a U.S. naval blockade over nearly eight months have not yielded decisive concessions.

However, the strategy of forcing concessions through massive attacks is contested. Iran has withstood economic pressure, and prior U.S.-Israeli strikes between February and April led to global increases in energy prices and inflation, while worsening regional security and depleting U.S. interceptor missile stocks. Dana Stroul, a former Pentagon official for Middle East policy under President Joe Biden, stated there is no convincing evidence that continuing military campaigns would alter the strategic situation, questioning how further attacks would resolve the region's underlying issues.

President Donald Trump has repeatedly halted plans for larger-scale hostilities this year, including a near-strike in early October despite extensive preparations by both U.S. and Israeli forces. While an October attack is considered unlikely due to Trump's commitment not to launch new offensives before the midterms and the delayed deployment of additional U.S. forces, including three aircraft carriers and thousands of Marines, the constant preparations and cancellations are causing significant unease within military planning staffs.

Trump's interest in preventing a rise in U.S. gasoline prices might lead him to spare refineries and oil facilities, though energy supplies could become a critical factor if the conflict widens. Iran anticipates further attacks and is preparing countermeasures, potentially targeting commercial shipping, energy infrastructure, and even data centers and undersea cables crucial for international internet communication. Diplomatic efforts continue, with the threat of new attacks used as leverage by Washington to achieve progress on Iran's nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz.

Israel's upcoming election on October 27th could influence U.S.-Israeli planning, as Netanyahu might lose power. While this could complicate initiating a new war, some observers suggest Netanyahu might leverage the prospect of a joint U.S.-Israeli attack to form a national unity government, potentially securing his political future. Meanwhile, the risk of regional escalation grows, with the U.S. State Department ordering the withdrawal of non-essential personnel and families from Saudi Arabia due to attacks by Iran-backed Houthis. The "New York Times" reports that Iran increasingly believes Washington and Jerusalem ultimately seek regime change.