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Battle for Electoral Threshold Could Decide Israel's Upcoming Elections
Israel's upcoming elections hinge on a fierce contest among at least eight parties near the electoral threshold, a sharp increase from previous elections. Historical data shows that votes lost by parties failing to cross the threshold have decisively influenced past results.
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What happened
- 01At least eight parties are currently competing near Israel's electoral threshold, up from the usual two or three.
- 02Previous elections saw hundreds of thousands of votes wasted on parties failing to pass the threshold, affecting final seat counts.
- 03In 2019, wasted votes cost Netanyahu's bloc about seven Knesset seats, weakening his position.
- 04In 2022, threshold effects amplified a small vote margin into nearly 300,000 wasted votes, benefiting Netanyahu's bloc.
- 05Eighteen lists are now contesting near the threshold, including notable right-wing and ultra-Orthodox parties.
- 06Parties will need around 160,000 to 170,000 votes to pass the threshold, higher than in previous elections.
With eighteen lists currently competing near the threshold and expected mergers ahead, parties will need more votes than before to qualify, making the election highly unpredictable.
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