Double Envelope Votes May Bolster Netanyahu Bloc, Analysts Say

As Israeli election results continue to be tallied, attention is turning to the "double envelope" votes, which could potentially sway the final seat distribution. These votes, estimated to comprise around 600,000 ballots equivalent to 15 Knesset seats, typically come from young voters, soldiers, reservists, and students.

Initial projections showed a lead for the "change bloc" overnight, but by morning, the situation had shifted, with neither bloc appearing to have a clear path to forming a 61-seat majority government. With 70% of votes counted, the Netanyahu bloc leads with 54 seats, and the change bloc has 47, excluding Arab parties.

Dr. Assaf Shapira, Director of the Institute for Political Reforms at the Israel Democracy Institute, explained that while these votes are significant, their impact on the overall bloc distribution might be limited. He noted that historically, these votes tend to mirror the general public's preferences, with a slight lean to the right, and have sometimes seen a weakening of ultra-Orthodox and Arab parties.

Shapira suggested that the Netanyahu bloc might benefit from these votes due to the demographic profile of the voters. "From past experience, the double envelopes can change the seat distribution within parties, but in terms of the bloc, it's usually the religious right-wing parties that gain strength," he stated. He cautiously estimated a potential one-seat gain for the Netanyahu bloc.

While some smaller parties like those associated with reservists might see a boost, Shapira does not anticipate them crossing the electoral threshold. He also observed that in the past, left-wing parties like Yesh Atid and Labor have slightly weakened in these votes, while centrist parties advocating for universal military service, such as the National Unity party, have seen a slight increase.

Ultimately, Shapira believes the double envelope votes are unlikely to drastically alter the overall bloc standings, especially since neither bloc is currently close to forming a government. The impact would be more significant if one bloc were already at 60 seats before these votes were counted.