Double Envelope Votes Could Sway Election Results
The counting of approximately 600,000 "double envelope" ballots, including those of soldiers and diplomats, is set to begin, potentially influencing the final election results by up to 15 Knesset seats. Analysis of the 2022 elections showed parties like Religious Zionism, National Unity, and Yisrael Beiteinu benefited from these votes, while Arab parties and some Haredi parties saw their support decrease. Although past trends are not a perfect predictor, these ballots can be decisive in close races and impact the overall bloc balance.
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- Approximately 600,000 "double envelope" ballots are being counted, potentially deciding up to 15 Knesset seats.
- These ballots include votes from soldiers, diplomats, prisoners, and hospitalized individuals.
- In 2022, Religious Zionism and National Unity saw significant gains from double envelope votes.
- Arab parties and some Haredi parties experienced a notable drop in support from these ballots in 2022.
- Double envelope votes can be crucial in close elections, affecting seat distribution and the electoral threshold.
- The composition of voters and lists in the current election may differ from 2022, making predictions uncertain.
As the counting of regular ballots nears completion, the focus is shifting to "double envelopes," which contain the votes of soldiers, diplomats, prisoners, hospitalized individuals, and others who voted outside their assigned polling stations. The Central Elections Committee estimates there are approximately 600,000 such ballots in the current election, a significant number that could represent around 15 Knesset seats. These votes are crucial, especially in close races, as they can potentially alter the final seat distribution, affect parties' ability to cross the electoral threshold, and influence the overall bloc balance.
Analysis of the 2022 Knesset elections reveals which parties benefited most from these "double envelopes." A party was considered to have benefited if its support in these ballots exceeded its national support. The Religious Zionism and Otzma Yehudit list, running together in 2022, saw a notable gain, receiving 15.45% of double envelope votes compared to 10.84% nationally. The National Unity party, led by Benny Gantz, also saw a positive difference, with 10.65% in double envelopes versus 9.08% overall. The Labor party and Yisrael Beiteinu also experienced gains from these votes.
The Likud party received the highest raw number of votes from double envelopes, over 107,000, but its proportional gain was minimal, with 23.52% in double envelopes compared to 23.41% nationally. Conversely, Arab parties were among the most disadvantaged by the double envelope count. Ra'am received only 1.75% of these votes, significantly lower than its 4.07% national support. Hadash-Ta'al and Balad also saw substantial drops in their share of double envelope votes compared to their overall results.
United Torah Judaism and Shas also experienced a decline in their support from double envelopes compared to their national figures. Yesh Atid saw a slight decrease, while Meretz remained largely unchanged. While the 2022 pattern is not a definitive predictor for the current election, as factors like list compositions and voter demographics can change, it highlights why parties with strong support among soldiers and mobile populations closely monitor these ballots. The outcome of the double envelope count is eagerly awaited by parties hoping for a boost in the final tally.
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