Double Envelope Votes Could Shift Election Results by 13 Seats

The final election results, expected Wednesday afternoon, will not immediately reveal the complete distribution of Knesset seats due to the ongoing count of votes from "double envelopes." The Central Elections Committee estimates between 600,000 and 650,000 such ballots, aiming to complete their verification by Friday afternoon before Shabbat. This unprecedented volume of double envelopes, potentially equivalent to 13 Knesset seats, could significantly alter the political landscape, turning losses into wins or vice versa. In the previous election, approximately 450,000 double envelopes were counted, which directly shifted one seat from ultra-Orthodox parties to Yisrael Beiteinu.

Traditionally, these votes, particularly from soldiers, have leaned towards the right-wing bloc. However, this year's dynamics may differ. Unlike young conscripts, reservists represent a more diverse demographic in terms of age, socioeconomic status, and political views. Legislation concerning conscription and the increased burden on reservists might influence their voting patterns, potentially benefiting the "change bloc."

Beyond the bloc distribution, the double envelopes offer a final chance for the "Amkha Yisrael" and "HaMeyuladnikim VeHaKalkalit" parties to cross the electoral threshold of 184,000 votes, given the high voter turnout. Partial results show Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha's "HaMeyuladnikim VeHaKalkalit" with about 77,000 votes and Ofer Vinter's "Amkha Yisrael" with approximately 48,000. Both parties face a significant deficit, requiring tens of thousands of additional votes from the double envelopes to pass the threshold. This scenario is statistically challenging, making it likely that these votes will remain "lost votes." Additionally, around 15,000 evacuees who have not returned to their original residences will also vote via double envelopes.