Double Envelope Votes May Bolster Right-Wing Religious Parties, Experts Say
Approximately 600,000 "double envelope" votes, representing 15 Knesset seats, could influence Israeli election results. These votes typically come from young people, soldiers, and reservists. Experts suggest these ballots may strengthen right-wing religious parties, potentially benefiting the Netanyahu bloc, though unlikely to significantly change the overall bloc distribution. The final impact depends on official counts, with no bloc currently close to forming a majority government.
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- Around 600,000 "double envelope" votes, worth 15 Knesset seats, could sway Israeli election outcomes.
- These votes primarily originate from young voters, soldiers, reservists, and students.
- Experts predict these ballots may bolster right-wing religious parties, potentially aiding the Netanyahu bloc.
- The votes are unlikely to significantly alter the overall distribution between the major political blocs.
- No Israeli political bloc is currently close to forming a majority government based on initial results.
As Israeli election results remain uncertain, with no party close to forming a 61-seat majority government, attention is turning to the "double envelope" votes, which could significantly impact the final seat distribution. These votes, estimated at around 600,000 and representing approximately 15 Knesset seats, typically come from young voters, soldiers, reservists, and students.
Dr. Assaf Shapira, head of the Institute for Policy Research at the Israel Democracy Institute, explained that while these votes are substantial, their distribution often mirrors the general public's, with a slight lean towards the right. He noted that in the past, these votes have tended to strengthen right-wing religious parties, potentially benefiting the Netanyahu bloc.
Shapira elaborated that the double envelope votes include ballots cast by Israelis abroad and at accessible polling stations. Soldiers constitute about half of these voters, with a notable increase in accessible polling station usage since the COVID-19 pandemic. Reservists and young workers in remote locations also contribute significantly.
While specific parties like Yoaz Hendel's and Yaron Zelekha's, and Ofer Winter's "Am Israel" are expected to see some gains, Shapira doubts they will pass the electoral threshold. Conversely, he anticipates a slight weakening of left-wing parties such as Yesh Atid and Labor, while centrist parties advocating for military service, like the National Unity party led by Gadi Eisenkot and Naftali Bennett's Yamina, might see a modest increase.
Despite the potential shifts within parties, Shapira believes the double envelope votes are unlikely to drastically alter the overall bloc standings. He stated that the impact on the major blocs will be minimal because the gains for right-wing parties are often offset by a decrease in votes for ultra-Orthodox parties. "It would be a different situation if one of the blocs had 60 seats before the double envelopes," he concluded.
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