Pollsters Face Reckoning After Election Day Discrepancies

Election pollsters are facing a period of introspection following significant discrepancies between their pre-election surveys and the initial vote counts. Nachum Peri, a writer for Maariv, commented on the wide gaps between projections and emerging results, noting that the outcomes were largely opposite to most polls. He highlighted Tzuriel Sharon and Filber as two pollsters whose predictions were relatively closer to the actual results.

Peri emphasized that vote counting was still ongoing and cautioned against drawing final conclusions, stating that data would continue to shift. He pointed out that most polls had given a significant advantage to Eizenkot over the Likud party, whereas the current results indicated the reverse. "They will have to do a thorough soul-searching," Peri said, adding that relying too heavily on polls is often ill-advised, as such discrepancies occur in almost every election cycle.

Moria Asraf acknowledged that neither pollsters nor journalists accurately gauged the public mood. She stated that journalists and commentators, who had spent the election period interpreting public sentiment, also needed to examine their own performance. "For a very long time, we spoke in the name of the Israeli public, predicted their inclinations, and determined for them what they felt," she wrote, concluding, "It's fortunate there is a ballot box."

Political commentator Amit Segal asserted that while Benjamin Netanyahu had not yet secured a victory, the "change bloc" had been defeated. He described the change bloc's election preparations as among the most impressive he had witnessed in his career, citing exemplary surplus agreements and unprecedented flight arrangements for voters abroad. Segal noted that the previous evening's polls had suggested Netanyahu's loss but left the winner on the other side unclear, an assessment he updated as actual results began to flow in.