Pollsters Face Scrutiny After Election Forecasts Miss Mark

The day after the 26th Knesset elections has raised significant questions for polling firms, as major discrepancies emerged between pre-election predictions and exit poll results. These gaps were particularly noticeable in estimating the strength of the Netanyahu bloc and identifying parties that would cross the electoral threshold. Initial analysis reveals a wide divergence among the forecasts. Channel 12's final poll, conducted by Mano Geva of Midgam Institute, predicted 56 seats for the "change bloc" and 50 for the Netanyahu bloc. Channel 13's poll by Shmuel Rosner and Noach Salpekov of the "HaMadad" institute projected 54 seats versus 50. Kan 11's poll, by Dudi Hassid of Kantar Institute, gave the change bloc 52 seats and Netanyahu's bloc 50.

It remains too early to definitively determine which pollster was closest to the final results, as a full comparison of individual party seat allocations is required after all votes are counted. However, last-minute predictions and exit polls presented differing election scenarios. i24NEWS's final poll, conducted by Direct Polls under Tzuriel Sharon, estimated the Netanyahu bloc at 59 seats, the Eisenkot bloc at 47, and Arab parties at 14. Conversely, Channel 14's final poll, by NEXT DATA led by Shlomo Philber, projected 62 seats for the right-wing bloc, 44 for the Eisenkot bloc, and 14 for Arab parties.

Exit polls further shifted the picture. i24NEWS's exit poll showed 55 seats for the Netanyahu bloc, 49 for the Eisenkot bloc, and 16 for Arab parties. Channel 14's exit poll indicated 60 seats for the right-wing bloc, 43 for the Eisenkot bloc, and 17 for Arab parties. This suggests i24NEWS presented a more balanced outcome in its exit poll compared to Channel 14, estimating a smaller gap between the blocs. However, this does not automatically prove its final poll was the most accurate, as pre-election surveys and exit polls are distinct tools requiring separate comparison to final results.

The issue of the electoral threshold also proved significant. In i24NEWS's final poll, Ofer Winter's Am Israel Party received four seats, while in the channel's exit poll, it received none. Channel 14 initially predicted 62 seats for the right-wing bloc before the election, but its initial exit poll lowered this to 60. The wide discrepancies highlight that polling inaccuracies are not merely technical; small shifts in estimates for parties near the threshold can drastically alter seat allocations and the overall bloc picture. The final determination of accuracy awaits the complete vote count, but the gap between predictions and outcomes renews questions about the reliability of seat forecasts.