US and Israel Plan Post-Election Strikes on Iran, Sources Say

The United States and Israel have developed detailed plans for potential strikes against Iran following the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, according to informed sources cited by The New York Times. The operation is envisioned as "short and intense," targeting likely sites such as nuclear and energy facilities, and missile and drone arsenals. However, President Donald Trump has not yet made a final decision to proceed with an attack, having previously rejected large-scale actions against Iran multiple times. Some sources suggest Trump might decide to act before the end of October, but consider this unlikely due to political and military considerations. Militarily, the full deployment of U.S. forces, including three aircraft carriers, thousands of Marines, fighter jets, and special operations forces, is not expected until early November. Additionally, longer nights in Iran in early November are preferred for nighttime operations. Israeli elections on October 27 could also complicate plans, as a potential defeat for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might make initiating a war more difficult for a transitional government. Some analysts speculate Netanyahu could leverage the prospect of a joint U.S.-Israeli strike to form a national unity government for wartime leadership, potentially extending his tenure.

One potential target mentioned is Mount Kirk in Iran, a deeply buried nuclear facility where activity has reportedly increased. Trump has considered using the GBU-43/B MOAB, the U.S.'s most powerful non-nuclear bomb, nicknamed "the mother of all bombs," though experts doubt its effectiveness against a deeply buried granite facility. The MOAB's surface detonation and the transport aircraft's vulnerability to Iranian air defenses are also concerns. While energy infrastructure is a possible target, oil refineries are reportedly not, as Trump aims to avoid a surge in gasoline prices. The potential effectiveness of a new military campaign is questioned, given that previous strikes in early 2026 led to increased energy prices, global inflation, regional insecurity, and depleted U.S. interceptor missile stocks. Despite U.S. predictions of Iran's collapse, the regime has endured economic pressure and become more hardened. Iran has indicated awareness of the preparations and is developing its own response plans, warning that any conflict would not be short or limited, threatening attacks on data centers and internet cables.

Political analyst Peyman Salehi suggested that Iran would retaliate against Saudi Aramco facilities if Mount Kirk is targeted, aiming to cause a global oil price surge. "The war has made us understand that the best leverage against Trump is to raise oil and energy prices, because it will hit the American people," Salehi stated. In early October, the IDF reportedly prepared for actions against Iran, but Trump halted the operation until after the U.S. elections. Both militaries had conducted extensive preparations. Some U.S. military personnel expressed frustration over the repeated planning and cancellation of strikes. Israeli expert Dani Sitrinovich sees no compelling reason for an attack now, arguing that Iran is not on the verge of obtaining nuclear weapons and that current actions are "madness" driven by political rather than strategic imperatives. He warned that separating Netanyahu's political considerations from Israel's strategic interests is dangerous, as any war with Iran would paralyze the Israeli economy without necessarily toppling the regime.

Amidst these preparations, the U.S. is reducing personnel at Middle Eastern bases and diplomatic missions, with measures similar to those taken before the February Iran conflict. The State Department has also ordered further reductions in staff at several diplomatic missions and instructed non-essential personnel and their families to leave Saudi Arabia due to ongoing threats. Simultaneously, the U.S. and Israel have intensified military exercises. A recent Israeli Air Force flight of dozens of fighter and refueling planes near Iran's border, traveling approximately 1,300 km through Syrian and Iraqi airspace, was described as a show of force to deter Iran, though it carried the risk of miscalculation and escalation. U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth met with Benjamin Netanyahu during this period, reportedly discussing strike options.