Meta Explores Prediction-Market App to Compete With Polymarket

Meta is weighing an entry into the fast-growing online prediction market, according to a New York Times report. Mark Zuckerberg recently instructed a small team to build a new standalone app called Arena, which would let users predict outcomes in areas such as sports, politics, culture, and current events. The product is still in early development and would operate separately from Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger.

For the initial launch, users would not wager real money. Instead, they would collect points, similar to ranking systems in online games. Sources cited in the report said Meta is not ruling out adding cash betting later. The effort reflects Zuckerberg’s push to find new growth engines beyond the company’s traditional social networks. Meta already has more than 3.5 billion daily users across its platforms, but it is still looking for new ways to expand and attract people to fresh services.

Prediction markets have become one of the internet’s hottest sectors, with platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi allowing users to trade on outcomes ranging from elections and government policy to sports games and awards shows. The report said activity on those two platforms reached about $50 billion in 2025 and topped $130 billion in 2026. The boom has also drawn gambling companies, crypto platforms, and even Donald Trump’s media group, all of which have announced similar initiatives in recent months. For operators, the model is attractive because they take fees on each user transaction.

This is not Meta’s first attempt in the field. In 2020, it launched Forecast, a prediction app that used a points system and was introduced during the COVID-19 pandemic as a way for users to share forecasts and knowledge. It was shut down in 2022, apparently because it failed to build enough users or engagement. The report says Arena is only one of several new apps under consideration, alongside a separate product called Meta Photos, designed for creating content with artificial intelligence. Meta believes its current Facebook and Instagram structure makes experimentation harder, which is pushing it toward standalone products. The company did not comment, and it remains unclear whether Arena will ultimately be released.