Mark Zuckerberg is pushing Meta into a new strategy after years of watching rivals seize markets it could have owned, from TikTok’s video feed to AI chatbots from OpenAI and Google. After Meta’s costly metaverse push failed to deliver, Zuckerberg now wants the company to move faster and launch multiple experimental apps that can ride new online trends and attract users before competitors do.
The first product in this effort is expected to be a prediction-market app that would compete with Polymarket and Kalshi, but with a crucial difference, users would not wager real money. According to a New York Times report cited in the article, Zuckerberg has assembled a small team to build a smartphone app under the internal codename Arena, with users betting with virtual points instead of cash, though Meta has not ruled out money-based play later. The app would stand apart from Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Messenger, while using those platforms to funnel users in.
The move comes as prediction markets and betting platforms have surged in popularity and scrutiny, including cases involving alleged insider trading around major events. Kalshi reportedly generated more than $2 billion in annual revenue and is preparing for a possible IPO no earlier than the end of 2027. Sports-betting companies FanDuel and DraftKings have also begun offering prediction-style markets. Meta’s point-only model is meant to reduce abuse linked to cash wagering, but it could also make manipulation easier because users would have less financial risk.
Meta previously tried this space with Forecast, a crowd-sourced prediction app launched in 2020 and shut down in 2022. The company now sees broader pressure to find new growth channels as its main apps, which reach 3.65 billion daily active users, near saturation. Zuckerberg has also ordered teams to develop other apps, including one called Meta Photos that would create new media with AI. Senator Richard Blumenthal said he would not let the move pass quietly, accusing Meta on X of profiting from “children, gamblers and others” and urging support for his child-safety and prediction-market bills.
