Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has ordered a select team to build a dedicated app for prediction markets and betting, according to a New York Times report. The experimental product, called "Arena" inside the company, is expected to operate separately from Meta’s social media apps. For now, it will rely on a points system similar to video games rather than real-money wagering, though Meta has not ruled out adding cash betting later. Company representatives declined to comment publicly.
The move comes as prediction markets have surged in popularity online, with users betting on events ranging from the Super Bowl to the length of Donald Trump’s speeches. Kalshi and Polymarket handled $50 billion in transactions in 2025, and that figure has already topped $130 billion this year. By the end of the decade, annual trading volume in the sector could reach $1 trillion. Meta plans to use its huge audience of more than 3.56 billion daily active users to help the new app grow, and employees have described the project as a top priority for Zuckerberg.
Arena is one of several standalone apps Meta is exploring, alongside another called Meta Photos, which is meant to generate new kinds of media using artificial intelligence. Meta previously tried prediction markets in 2020 with an app called Forecast during the early months of the coronavirus pandemic, but shut it down in 2022.
The fast-growing industry has also attracted major rivals, including FanDuel, DraftKings, the crypto exchange Gemini, and Trump Media and Technology Group. Trading platforms such as Robinhood and Interactive Brokers have launched event-based contracts tied to things like central bank decisions and sports results. The sector is also drawing legal scrutiny over potential insider trading. In April, New York authorities accused a U.S. special forces member of using classified information to bet on a secret plan to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, and he reportedly made more than $400,000 on Polymarket. Separately, traders timed around Trump’s policy surprises have fueled suspicion that anonymous government insiders may have earned millions.
Meta’s plan has already drawn criticism. Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut said in a social media post that Meta had previously copied slot machines to addict children to Instagram and was now turning itself into a prediction platform. He urged support for two bills he is sponsoring, the Kids Online Safety Act and the Platform Integrity and Accountability for Prediction Markets Act. Meta employees stressed that Arena is still in development and may never be released.
