Meta Readies a Prediction Market App to Rival Polymarket and Kalshi

Meta is building a prediction market product meant to compete with platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, according to a New York Times report. The key difference is that users would not wager real money, but would instead trade with virtual points, although the company is not ruling out using cash later on.

People familiar with the project said Mark Zuckerberg recently assigned a small team to develop a smartphone app with a Kalshi- and Polymarket-style format. The internal codename is Arena. The app would operate separately from Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Messenger, but Meta plans to use those services to direct users to it.

The project is still in development and may never launch, but company sources described it as an experimental effort that is nevertheless a high priority. It is part of a broader push by Zuckerberg to build new apps around emerging online trends and behaviors, amid concern that Meta's existing platforms, which host 3.56 billion daily active users, may be nearing saturation in growth potential. Another app in the same effort, Meta Photos, would let users create new media using AI.

The move comes as prediction markets have attracted growing attention in recent months, including cases in which users reportedly used inside information to profit around major current events such as the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro or the start of the war in Iran. Kalshi was also reported this week to be preparing for an IPO no earlier than the end of 2027, after its annual revenue pace topped $2 billion. The plans have already drawn criticism from lawmakers, including Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal, who wrote on X that Meta is copying slot machines to make children addicted to Instagram and said Zuckerberg is turning the company into a prediction market that profits from addiction. Meta did not comment.