Israel Warns of Syrian Leader’s Unpredictability Amid Security Talks and Turkish Ties

Israel is closely monitoring Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa (also known as Abu Muhammad al-Julani) amid ongoing security talks between Syria and Israel and Syria’s strengthening ties with Turkey. Despite months of U.S.-backed negotiations on a possible security agreement, Damascus is simultaneously deepening its relationship with Ankara, which Israel views as hostile. This dual approach raises fears in Israel of miscalculations that could spark renewed military conflict.

A senior Israeli military source described al-Sharaa as a "chameleon," currently seeking calm on the Israeli front but potentially shifting tactics once he feels stronger. Israel suspects al-Sharaa does not fully control Syrian territory and may tolerate jihadist groups near the border. Israeli officials remain wary of any non-aggression pact that could leave Israel vulnerable, especially given Syria’s ongoing military rebuilding with Turkish support following the 2024 overthrow of the Assad regime.

Israel also expressed concern over Turkish military presence in Syria, which it views as a significant security threat. Israeli officials have cut intelligence sharing with Tom Bark, a figure seen as pro-Turkish and close to former U.S. President Donald Trump, who has shown support for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Israel opposes Turkey’s involvement in international stabilization forces in Gaza due to Ankara’s backing of Hamas.

The Israeli military source emphasized that while Israel is not seeking war with Turkey, it remains deeply distrustful of both Turkey and Syria. Security talks with Syria, which began in May 2025, have stalled amid Israeli doubts about al-Sharaa’s Islamist ideology and intentions. Israel is willing to reach a security arrangement but refuses to relinquish strategic assets like its presence on Mount Hermon.

The situation remains delicate, with Washington and Ankara playing key roles in shaping outcomes. Israel’s trauma from the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack and subsequent regional conflicts heightens its sensitivity to any Turkish military expansion near its borders. Israeli officials insist no Israeli prime minister will allow Turkey to gain a foothold in neighboring Syria, underscoring the fragile balance in the region.