Ahmad al-Sharaa Emerges as New Northern Threat to Israel Amid Syrian Turmoil

Ahmad al-Sharaa, formerly known as Abu Muhammad al-Julani, has become a clear and present threat to Israel, according to Israeli intelligence sources. Once considered a mystery, al-Sharaa is now recognized as a jihadist leader aligned with Turkey and backed by Iran, working to rebuild the Syrian army. His role involves undermining the United States and European countries while negotiating security understandings with Israel to gain time and calm.

This week, the Israeli Air Force struck deep inside Syria near Idlib, close to the Turkish border, sending a message to al-Sharaa and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Israel made clear it will not tolerate Syrian territory hosting foreign military forces that threaten its security or freedom of operation, whether Turkish, Iranian, or Hezbollah forces. Turkey has increasingly been viewed by Israel as an adversary, marking a shift from previous focus on third-circle threats like Iran and Yemen.

Israel aims to maintain a security status quo allowing its air force freedom to fly and gather intelligence over Syria and Lebanon without interference from Turkish air defense systems. The recent strike on the al-Dohour base drew mild U.S. condemnation, but the situation remains volatile. As Iran's influence wanes in northern Syria, Turkey is filling the vacuum, raising concerns about how much U.S. President Donald Trump will support Israel's northern security interests.

Erdogan is described by Trump as a "very good friend," and Turkey remains a NATO member hosting a major U.S. base at Incirlik, complicating conflict prevention efforts between Israel, Turkey, and Syria. Israel's interest lies in a stable Syria rebuilding from devastation, as promised by al-Sharaa early on. However, with Iran weakening and Turkey seeking to capitalize on its support for al-Sharaa's rise over Bashar al-Assad, Israel faces increasing challenges.

The U.S. policy in the region is seen as weak and evasive, enabling Syria's leader to claim possession of nuclear material from a North Korean reactor and refuse to relinquish it. This development adds to regional tensions, especially as Erdogan's proxy reportedly holds such material, raising strategic concerns for Israel and its allies. Avi Benayahu, a retired brigadier general and Israeli media analyst, provided commentary on these evolving dynamics.