Trump Envoy Suggests Israel’s Syria Strike May Have Provoked Turkey Ahead of Elections

Tom Barrack, former US envoy to Syria and ambassador to Turkey, proposed that Israel’s recent strike on the Abu al-Duhur military base in Syria might have been intended to provoke Turkey, possibly linked to Israel’s upcoming elections. In an interview on X, Barrack clarified this was a theory rather than intelligence-based fact, suggesting Israel could have been "tempting the Turks" amid a politically charged atmosphere. He noted that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is aware of his electorate’s expectations as elections approach, while Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is also considering early elections and must heed his sensitive voter base, particularly regarding Gaza.

Barrack outlined a second theory that Israel acted on intelligence suggesting Turkish military presence at the Syrian base, information shared with the US six days before the strike. However, US intelligence assessments contradicted this, finding no Turkish movement. Despite diplomatic backchannel talks, including a two-hour conversation between Syrian Foreign Minister Assad al-Shibani and Mossad chief, Israel proceeded with the attack without warning Turkey. This lack of coordination nearly triggered a direct military confrontation between Israel and Turkey, a NATO ally with significant military capabilities.

Barrack described the situation as extremely dangerous, with Turkish forces ready to scramble jets in response to unidentified aircraft near their border. He emphasized that neither side sought escalation to open conflict, crediting cooler heads for de-escalating the crisis. He stressed that Ankara does not desire war with Israel and focuses on restraint, especially given the importance of the Palestinian issue to Turkish and broader Muslim public opinion.

The envoy framed the incident within a broader strategic contest over Syria’s future post-Assad, with Israel aiming to prevent Iranian entrenchment and Turkey expanding its regional influence. Despite tensions, Barrack revealed ongoing covert security cooperation among Israel, Turkey, and Syria against ISIS militants exploiting Syria’s instability. He expressed hope for a return to the early 2000s “honeymoon” period in Israel-Turkey relations but acknowledged the recent episode highlighted the fragility of that path.