Hapoel Be'er Sheva Favored to Advance to Champions League Group Stage After Win Over Sabah

Hapoel Be'er Sheva is in a strong position to advance to the UEFA Champions League group stage after securing a 2-1 victory against Azerbaijani club Sabah in their first-leg match on August 19, 2026. Following this win, predictive algorithms from Football Meets Data and Football Ranked have significantly increased Be'er Sheva's chances of progressing. Football Ranked now gives the Israeli club a 78% probability of advancing, up from 48% before the match, while Football Meets Data raised their estimate from 48% to 65%. The algorithm predicts a 42% chance of Sabah winning the second leg, 32% for Be'er Sheva, and 26% for a draw, which would also see Be'er Sheva advance. Even if Sabah wins, Be'er Sheva could still progress via penalties. The forecast for the second leg is a 1-1 draw, with Sabah having a slightly higher chance (42.8%) of scoring more than two goals compared to Be'er Sheva's 35.3%. If Be'er Sheva advances, they will enter the Champions League group stage as a fourth-seed team under the new format. They could face eight potential opponents, two from each seeding tier. Tier 1 includes clubs like Paris Saint-Germain, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Liverpool, Inter Milan, Manchester City, Arsenal, Barcelona, and Atletico Madrid. Tier 2 features Borussia Dortmund, Roma, Sporting Lisbon, Aston Villa, Porto, Manchester United, Club Brugge, Real Betis, and PSV Eindhoven. Tier 3 includes Feyenoord, Lille, Napoli, Leipzig, Villarreal, and Shakhtar Donetsk. Tier 4 contains Stuttgart, Como, and Lens, with Slavia Prague positioned between tiers 3 and 4.