Hapoel Be'er Sheva Favored to Advance to Champions League Group Stage After Win Over Sabah

Hapoel Be'er Sheva is in a strong position to advance to the UEFA Champions League group stage following their 2-1 victory over Azerbaijani club Sabah on August 19, 2026. According to the Football Meets Data algorithm, Be'er Sheva's chances of progressing have significantly improved, rising from 48% before the first leg to 65% after the win. Another model, Football Ranked, gives the Israeli club a 78% probability of advancing.

The second leg is forecasted to be competitive, with a 42% chance of a Sabah win, 32% for Be'er Sheva, and 26% for a draw, which would also see Be'er Sheva through. Even if Sabah wins, Be'er Sheva could still advance via penalties. The algorithm predicts a 1-1 draw as the most likely outcome in the upcoming match, with Sabah having a slightly higher chance (42.8%) of scoring more than two goals compared to Be'er Sheva's 35.3%.

If Be'er Sheva maintains their advantage and qualifies, they will enter the Champions League as a fourth-seeded team. Under the new format, they could face opponents from four different seeding pots, including top European clubs such as Paris Saint-Germain, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Liverpool, Inter Milan, Manchester City, Arsenal, Barcelona, and Atlético Madrid in the first pot. Other potential opponents come from Borussia Dortmund, Roma, Sporting Lisbon, Aston Villa, Porto, Manchester United, Club Brugge, Real Betis, and PSV Eindhoven in the second pot, and teams like Feyenoord, Lille, Napoli, Leipzig, Villarreal, and Shakhtar Donetsk in the third pot. The fourth pot includes Stuttgart, Como, Lens, and possibly Slavia Prague.

This favorable outlook marks a significant milestone for Be'er Sheva as they aim to compete among Europe's elite clubs in the prestigious Champions League group stage.