31 Likud MKs and Ministers Compete for 17 Realistic Knesset Seats in Party Primaries

The Likud party primaries have reached a critical stage as approximately 140,000 registered members prepare to vote among 121 candidates, including 31 current ministers and Knesset members vying for only 17 realistic spots on the party list. Voting began at 10:00 AM, with members allowed to select up to 12 candidates on the national list and one candidate from their local district. This system has led to intense campaigning, negotiations, and strategic endorsements in recent days.

The crowded field is expected to produce very narrow margins between candidates, with only a small number of votes likely determining who secures a viable position and who is left out of the Knesset. The primary results will also pose a practical challenge for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who must later finalize a list appealing not only to party members but also to right-wing voters outside Likud.

A significant backdrop to the primaries was a legal battle over district candidacies, which ultimately prevented some incumbent and former MKs from running in certain districts. After the primaries, Netanyahu is expected to face difficulties in granting additional reserved slots ("sharions") to candidates, especially if those candidates lack strong public or electoral appeal. Party insiders suggest Netanyahu may only allocate one or two such slots, contingent on securing high-profile figures.

The aftermath of the primaries could also affect internal party dynamics, as incumbent MKs who lose their spots will remain in the outgoing Knesset but with diminished prospects for reelection. There is concern among party leadership about potential unrest from disappointed MKs who feel less politically dependent on Netanyahu than before. Although there have been talks about possible political moves against Netanyahu, including a constructive no-confidence scenario, no concrete signs of such efforts have emerged yet.

Today's results will determine who survives the tight competition and shape the internal balance of power within Likud, influencing Netanyahu's maneuvering space as he completes the election list ahead of the 2026 general elections.