Likud Faces Unprecedented Primary Battle With 36 Incumbents Competing for 16 Realistic Seats

The Likud party is heading into an unusually intense primary election on August 17, with 36 current Knesset members and ministers competing for approximately 16 realistic spots on the party list. This follows a Likud court ruling that set the framework for the primaries, amid polls forecasting the party to win around 23 seats in the October 27 general election.

Prime Minister and Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu has secured eight reserved slots on the list, positioned at numbers 5, 9, 11, 15, 18, 23, 26, and 29. Based on current polling, only six of these reserved candidates are expected to enter the Knesset, potentially displacing sitting Likud MKs and ministers. This leaves a fierce contest for the remaining 16 realistic seats, excluding Netanyahu and the reserved slots.

Among the incumbents vying for these places are ministers Yariv Levin, Eli Cohen, David Amsalem, Yoav Kisch, Nir Barkat, Miri Regev, Miki Zohar, Avi Dichter, Israel Katz, Shlomo Karhi, Amichai Chikli, Idith Silman, Haim Katz, Gila Gamliel, and May Golan. Current MKs include Amir Ohana, David Bitan, Eliyahu Revivo, Nissim Vaturi, Shalom Danino, Tali Gottlieb, Hanoch Milwitsky, Boaz Bismuth, Moshe Saada, Eli Dallal, Ofir Katz, Ariel Kallner, Eti Atiya, Amit Halevi, Tzvi Malka, Osher Shekalim, Keti Shitrit, Moshe Pasal, Sasson Gueta, Avichai Boaron, and Afif Abed.

The party's internal rules, influenced by Netanyahu and Minister Haim Katz, initially allowed current and former MKs and ministers to run in regional districts, but this was overturned by the Likud court, limiting the number of realistic spots available to incumbents. Netanyahu has promised a reserved slot to Minister Katz and possibly to MK Eti Atiya, while another reserved spot is expected for Minister Gideon Sa'ar due to his alliance with the New Hope party. MK Michel Buskila, recently appointed deputy foreign minister, may also receive a reserved slot.

With polls suggesting Likud will secure 23 seats, the competition for the limited realistic spots is expected to be fierce, marking a highly unusual primary battle within the party ahead of the national elections in October.