Nearly 40 Likud MKs Compete for 15 Realistic Seats in Crucial Primaries

The Likud party is set to begin its primary elections on Monday, with nearly 40 incumbent Knesset members and ministers vying for approximately 15 realistic spots on the party list. This intense competition is unprecedented in Likud, driven by unfavorable poll results and numerous reserved slots secured by Prime Minister and party leader Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu has reportedly targeted several MKs, including Tali Gottlieb, David Bitan, and Nir Barkat, aiming to prevent them from securing high list positions.

One of the main contests is for the top spot on the list, with Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana considered the frontrunner. However, strong challengers include MK Tali Gottlieb and ministers Yariv Levin and Eli Cohen. The race among women candidates is also tight, with current ministers Ayelet Golan, Idit Silman, and Gila Gamliel competing against Eti Atiya, backed by influential minister Haim Katz. Netanyahu reportedly prefers that the top female spot remain with Miri Regev, but this is uncertain.

The power of political deals will be tested on voting day. High voter turnout and increased participation tend to weaken deal-based candidates and benefit less organized contenders like Minister Amichai Shikli and MK Moshe Saada. Conversely, low turnout would favor allies of Haim Katz and David Bitan. A high placement for Bitan would signal internal challenges for Netanyahu amid ongoing conflicts between them.