Tightest Likud Primaries in History Set to Reshape Party List Amid Internal Rivalries

The Likud party is preparing for its most competitive primaries ever, with voting opening tomorrow at 10:00 AM. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s reserved slots and the Likud court’s decision to bar incumbent Knesset members from running in regional districts have created a crowded race for a limited number of realistic spots on the national list. This has lowered the minimum voter threshold needed for candidates to secure a place, increasing the likelihood of surprises in the results.

The party faces two key dynamics: a large number of Knesset members competing for relatively few national list positions, and a split between candidates backed by the party establishment, including ministers like Eli Cohen, Yariv Levin, Amir Ohana, and Miri Regev, and a sizable group of popular candidates among free voters such as Tali Gottlieb, May Golan, and Keti Shitrit. This division raises concerns that Likud could lose 2-3 seats in the upcoming election.

Internal battles are also intensifying, notably among female candidates vying for the three designated women’s slots at positions 10, 20, and 25. Miri Regev and Tali Gottlieb are expected to secure the top two spots, but May Golan, Keti Shitrit, and Idit Silman remain strong contenders. Another notable contest is between David Bitan, influential in the Shephelah region, and Haim Katz, who holds a reserved spot but commands significant organized support.

Nir Barkat faces a critical test after reports surfaced that he allegedly attempted a "coup" against Netanyahu during the war, a move reportedly blocked by ministers Haim Katz, Gideon Sa’ar, and Ze'ev Elkin. Sa’ar received a reserved spot, while Elkin, who effectively maintained Netanyahu’s premiership, is competing in the primaries. The primaries will ultimately be decided by approximately 150,000 Likud members, marking the official start of the election campaign for the next Knesset.

The primaries reflect the party’s internal democracy amid disputes and petitions, with the final vote determining the composition of the Likud list and the balance of power within the party.