Likud Primaries Heat Up as Candidates Jockey for Limited Spots Amid Netanyahu's Reserved List Uncertainty

As the Likud party primaries approach, the race for spots on the party list is becoming increasingly uncertain. Media strategist Moran Shmueloff highlights shifts in candidate standings, surprises, and the critical question of who will secure a place on the list. Among women candidates, Gila Gamliel is staging a comeback, regaining strength and former advisors, potentially emerging as a positive surprise. Conversely, Tali Gottlieb, once considered a strong contender for a top-two spot, is now predicted to fall into the second ten, a significant drop from early expectations. This decline impacts the competition below her, where Keti Shitrit, Idit Silman, May Golan, and Eti Atiya vie for a very limited number of realistic positions, making the identity of the fourth woman on the list potentially decisive for the top 20.

At the top tier, the field appears more stable with Israel Katz, Yariv Levin, Eli Cohen, and Amir Ohana seen as strong contenders, alongside reserved slots controlled by Netanyahu. This dynamic narrows the real contest for the first ten places, turning even the tenth spot into a battleground. In the Religious Zionist faction, uncertainty remains as Avichai Boaron, Ariel Klenner, and Amit Halevi compete for the same electoral niche, making their contest one of the primaries’ most interesting. Veteran politicians like Dudi Amsalem, David Bitan, and Haim Katz bring experience and networks but face no guarantees of breaking into the top ten.

Newcomers such as Dr. Nimrod Madrer, Elad Zamir, Vitali Haikin, and Dor Harlef are also in the fray, with the ongoing legal battle over the election method potentially affecting their chances. Changes or cancellations of district contests could push them behind established party figures. Above all, the biggest question remains Netanyahu’s reserved list of eight slots. Currently, no definitive list of strong candidates for these spots exists, fueling speculation and uncertainty.

Netanyahu’s ongoing legal struggle over the election system could force the party to alter the primary format if the Arrangements Committee fails to reach a solution. Such changes may upset veteran activists who have built influence through the primaries, potentially impacting party morale and the campaign. In summary, the real campaign has yet to begin, but the battle is already intense: women fight for every place, veterans defend their power, newcomers seek breakthroughs, and the Religious Zionist bloc competes for limited space, all while awaiting Netanyahu’s decisions on his reserved slots.