Likud Primaries Near as Half of Incumbents Face Exclusion Amid Intense Competition

Less than 24 hours before the Likud party primaries open, intense pressure is mounting as approximately half of the party's current Knesset members are expected to lose their seats. With 34 incumbent ministers and MKs running and polls suggesting Likud could secure around 30 seats (up from the current 23), only about 17 realistic spots remain for sitting politicians, meaning many will be excluded from the next Knesset.

Several incumbents have already announced they will not run, citing the limited reserved slots allocated by party leader and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, including ministerial and regional placements. Some have even sought positions in other parties. Itamar Ben Gvir, head of Otzma Yehudit, revealed that four ministers and four to five Likud MKs recently requested reserved spots on his party's list, reflecting shifting political calculations.

Ben Gvir has also actively promoted certain Likud candidates through endorsements, while Netanyahu has largely refrained from publicly backing specific contenders, despite internal polling showing Tali Gottlieb and Amir Ohana leading in popularity among Likud voters. Netanyahu expressed concern over Gottlieb's rise but chose not to intervene, trusting party members to make the right decisions. However, he did support three candidates in regional districts to prevent factional splits within the party.

Polling ahead of the primaries shows Gottlieb and Ohana at the top, with senior ministers like Yoav Kisch and Shlomo Karhi losing ground. Some ministers, such as Haim Katz and Israel Katz, have secured reserved slots ensuring their place on the list. Others, including Gila Gamliel and Dudi Amsalem, risk exclusion without such protection.

Following the announcement of reserved slots and the party list structure, several MKs have declared their retirement from the race, including Deputy Speaker Eliyahu Revivo, who criticized the election system and called for responsible leadership to form a broad government. Other non-contenders include Moshe (Moshiko) Pasal and Zaga Malko, with potential replacements like footballer Menashe Zalaka possibly receiving reserved spots. The primaries will decisively shape Likud's parliamentary lineup ahead of the upcoming elections.