Likud Primaries Near as Half of Incumbents Face Exclusion Amid Intense Competition

Less than 24 hours before the Likud primaries open, pressure is mounting with 34 current ministers and Knesset members competing for limited spots. Assuming Likud secures 30 seats in the upcoming elections, only 17 realistic positions remain for incumbents, meaning about half of the current Likud MKs are expected to lose their seats. Several members have already announced they will not run, citing the party's reserved slots for the chairman, ministers, and regional candidates as a factor.

Some MKs have sought to join other parties, with Otzma Yehudit chairman Itamar Ben-Gvir revealing that four ministers and four to five Likud MKs recently asked him for reserved spots on his party's list, reflecting their concerns about Likud's polling. Ben-Gvir has also promoted a list of recommended candidates for the primaries, including support videos for some Likud contenders.

Prime Minister and Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu has largely refrained from publicly endorsing candidates, despite receiving polling data showing that placing Tali Gottlieb near the top of the list could cost the party two to three seats. Netanyahu described the data as "concerning" but chose not to intervene, trusting party members to make the right decisions. However, he has backed three regional candidates to prevent factional splits and maintain control over open positions. Netanyahu has avoided publicly supporting candidates seen as problematic, such as Minister Nir Barkat, who reportedly attempted a party coup.

Recent polls show Tali Gottlieb and Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana leading in popularity among Likud voters, with senior ministers like Yoav Kisch and Shlomo Karai falling behind. Some ministers, including Gila Gamliel and Dudi Amsalem, risk losing their seats unless protected by reserved slots. Netanyahu has reserved spots for ministers Haim Katz and Israel Katz, with Katz expected in the top five and Haim Katz in the second ten. Other reserved slots include Gideon Sa'ar, MK Michel Buskila, and businessman Oren Dobronski, recently announced as a reserved candidate.

Following the announcement of reserved slots and regional placements, several MKs have declared they will not run. Deputy Speaker Eliyahu Revivo, who campaigned against Gottlieb, cited the difficulty posed by the election system and reserved spots and called on the leadership to form a broad government. Revivo reportedly was offered an ambassadorship by Netanyahu in exchange for not running. Other MKs stepping down include Moshe (Moshiko) Pasal and MK Tsega Melaku, who was reserved in the last election. To replace Melaku, Hadera soccer player Menashe Zelka is a possible candidate for a reserved spot.

The primaries will determine the Likud list composition amid intense internal competition and strategic maneuvering ahead of the next Knesset elections.