Netanyahu Strengthens Control as Likud Faces Intense Internal Primaries

The recent internal vote among Likud's central committee members revealed a significant shift in the party's internal power dynamics, although it did not provide a clear forecast of Benjamin Netanyahu's electoral standing or Likud's strength in upcoming elections. The high turnout indicated an engaged and alert party base. However, the key takeaway was the erosion of the influence of political deals within the party and the rising importance of independent voters, known as "free votes."

For years, political deals involving secret agreements and vote-sharing arrangements dominated Likud primaries, with dealmakers like David Bitan wielding considerable influence. Yet, Bitan failed to secure his position among roughly 4,500 central committee voters, suggesting that such deals will likely have less sway over the approximately 160,000 registered party members in the primaries. This trend strengthens the democratic character of the party but poses challenges for politicians who relied on deal-based support, including Bitan, Dudi Amsalem, and others.

The most consequential development concerns the "reserved slots" (shiryonim) system. Netanyahu secured unprecedented political maneuvering power as party chairman by negotiating nine reserved spots, down from his initial demand for eleven. This reduction in open seats will intensify competition and pressure within the party list, setting the stage for one of the most aggressive and contentious primary battles Likud has seen in recent years. The limited availability of positions and the fierce contest among candidates are expected to lead to a political bloodbath ahead of the primaries.

Overall, the internal vote signals a transformation in Likud's internal election process, with diminished influence of traditional political deals and increased empowerment of individual voters, while Netanyahu consolidates his control over candidate selection through the reserved slots mechanism.