Likud Primaries Ignite Fierce Battles Over Realistic Knesset List Spots

The Likud party's primary elections, set for Monday, will determine the party's candidate list for the upcoming Knesset elections on October 27, 2024. Approximately 80 candidates are competing for roughly 17 realistic spots within the top 30 on the national list. Among these contenders are 31 current Knesset members and ministers, with only three of eight incumbent female politicians expected to secure a realistic position. This intense competition means that 14 sitting MKs and ministers will likely lose their seats.

The outgoing 25th Knesset saw Likud as a prominent faction, with its members actively campaigning since November 2022 to secure favorable list placements. In the final hours before the primaries, candidates are intensifying efforts to maximize their rankings. The crowded field has led to unprecedented internal battles, including "elimination lists" where activists aligned with specific ministers and MKs attempt to lower rivals' rankings to boost preferred candidates.

A significant factor in the primaries is the influence of organized voter blocs, representing about 40% of the party's 140,000 members, who circulate recommended candidate lists and coordinate extensive logistical support across branches. Despite the fierce competition for top spots, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu traditionally assigns ministerial roles based on considerations beyond primary rankings, as seen with former Foreign Minister Israel Katz, who held senior posts despite a lower primary placement.

Newcomers like Minister Amichai Shikli and Deputy Minister Almog Cohen are expected to rank highly, while MK Tali Gottlieb, previously placed 25th as a new female representative, is now polling well above veteran ministers. The primaries will open nationwide at 10 a.m. Monday, marking a critical moment amid Likud's ongoing legal challenges, internal dissent over reserved list spots, and the overarching question of who will secure seats in the next Knesset.