Tough Likud Primaries Could Leave Senior MKs Out of Knesset

The Likud party is approaching its primaries, with a fierce competition expected for Knesset seats. Unlike parties where the list is set by the leader or a committee, Likud's primaries allow party members to vote for candidates, influencing their ranking on the national list. Higher-ranked candidates have better chances of entering the Knesset, depending on the number of seats the party wins.

However, the final Likud list is more complex due to reserved slots controlled by party leader Benjamin Netanyahu. Besides holding the top spot himself, Netanyahu can place candidates in reserved positions without them needing to secure high primary rankings. These reserved slots are interspersed among the primary-elected candidates, reducing the number of open spots for others.

Candidates compete in different tracks: the national list, special reserved slots for groups like women, youth, immigrants, and a "new woman" slot for first-time female candidates, as well as regional district slots representing areas such as Jerusalem, Dan, Galilee, and the Negev. Winning a district or reserved slot guarantees a place on the list but does not ensure a realistic chance to enter the Knesset if the party fails to win enough mandates.

This system is expected to make the primaries especially challenging for incumbent MKs, as limited realistic spots and reserved slots reduce their chances of reelection. It also raises broader questions about the effectiveness of reserved slots in ensuring genuine representation of women, youth, immigrants, and regional groups in the next Knesset, given that some reserved positions are placed too low on the list to realistically secure seats.