Likud Faces New Challenges as Gilad Erdan and Yuli Edelstein Launch New Party

The Likud party is currently navigating two distinct political challenges following recent developments involving key members. On one hand, MK Dan Illouz’s departure from Likud to join Yisrael Beiteinu has been largely dismissed within Likud as insignificant, with party insiders and commentators agreeing that Illouz does not bring substantial electoral strength to his new party. Avi Rabina, publisher of "Meluchadim News," noted that Illouz’s exit was anticipated due to his low standing in internal polls, and that Yisrael Beiteinu leader Avigdor Lieberman mainly benefits from the headline of a Likud MK switching sides rather than from any real voter shift. Likud MK Tali Gottlieb also downplayed the move, emphasizing the shared anti-Haredi stance between Illouz and Lieberman rather than any electoral impact.

Conversely, the launch of a new party by former Likud ministers Gilad Erdan and Yuli Edelstein is seen as a more significant political event. Likud officials acknowledge the uncertainty surrounding the new party’s potential influence and have yet to formulate a clear response strategy. Rabina highlighted the distinction between Erdan and Edelstein, who have long-standing senior roles within Likud, and Illouz, suggesting the former duo’s departure carries more weight. However, skepticism remains about the new party’s ability to surpass the electoral threshold, with some Likud members suggesting any future success would depend on alliances with other political players.

Gottlieb added that if Erdan and Edelstein’s party fails to cross the threshold, votes could be lost to the opposition bloc, potentially weakening it. Meanwhile, Likud continues to focus internally, with expectations that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will await the results of the party primaries before deciding on further political moves, including candidate list composition and reserved slots for the upcoming Knesset elections.