US-Iran Deal Raises Israeli Concerns Over Hormuz Control and Economic Gains

Iran expert Danny Sitrinovitch expressed serious concerns about a developing agreement reportedly being negotiated between the United States and Iran, which could significantly benefit Tehran. According to reports, the deal, brokered through Oman, would effectively grant Iran control over the strategic Strait of Hormuz, allowing it to regulate all maritime traffic entering and exiting the waterway. This control would be exercised via Oman, which is known to be aligned with Iran. The agreement also includes lifting the maritime blockade and easing restrictions on Iranian oil sales, contingent on US approval.

Sitrinovitch highlighted that such an agreement would represent a major victory for Iran, reducing the likelihood of direct conflict with the US and potentially restarting nuclear negotiations. He attributed the shift in US policy to the influence of Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Qatar, which have pressured the Trump administration toward de-escalation. This regional diplomatic effort was underscored by a recent visit from the Saudi defense minister to Washington and communications between Qatar’s emir and Trump.

From Israel’s perspective, the deal is deeply troubling. Israeli officials view any agreement that strengthens the Iranian regime as detrimental, as Israel aims to weaken Iran and prevent it from becoming a strategic threat. While a nuclear deal could theoretically prevent Iran from advancing its nuclear weapons program, the current Israeli government sees all such agreements as harmful. Sitrinovitch noted that Israeli military strikes on Iranian infrastructure, while damaging, would provoke retaliatory actions and cause oil prices to surge, a scenario Israel is willing to endure but the US is not.

The expert concluded that Israel faces a broader challenge in countering Iran’s regional ambitions, especially if the US moves forward with this agreement, making it difficult for Israel to influence American policy on Iran.