New Hormuz Strait Agreement Signals Shift in Global Maritime Power Dynamics

The recent agreement concerning the Strait of Hormuz marks the beginning of a new era in maritime control, with significant implications for global power relations and Israel's strategic position. Since the U.S.-led "Roar of the Lion" operation against Iran in February 2026, aimed at preventing Iran's nuclear development and curbing its missile capabilities, Iran's Revolutionary Guards have blocked and mined the strait, threatening vessels passing through. The ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations over control and free navigation rights in the strait have been marked by fluctuations, threats, and propaganda, but it is now clear that Iran will gain some level of control over this critical maritime passage.

This development challenges the maritime order established by the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, which balanced coastal states' rights with the global community's right to free navigation. The convention allowed ships to pass through territorial waters without interference, ensuring uninterrupted and rapid maritime trade. The new agreement suggests a return to pre-1982 conditions, where coastal nations exert greater control over adjacent waters, potentially restricting passage and using maritime routes as leverage.

For Israel, a country economically dependent on maritime trade through the Mediterranean and the Gulf of Eilat, this shift poses risks. Neighboring countries like Spain, Morocco, Turkey, Egypt, and Libya could expand control over strategic maritime chokepoints such as the Strait of Gibraltar, the Bosporus, and regional waters, potentially hindering Israeli shipping. The evolving situation in the Strait of Hormuz signals a weakening of traditional naval powers and a rise in influence by smaller coastal states, which could increase tensions and conflicts over maritime freedom, directly affecting Israel's security and economy.

Experts Dr. Benny Shapira and Dr. (Ret.) Brig. Gen. Shaul Horev from the National Center for Blue Economy and Innovation in Haifa emphasize the need to prepare for heightened maritime tensions. They highlight that the new maritime order could disrupt the balanced regime that has governed international waters for decades, requiring strategic adjustments by Israel and other nations reliant on free sea passage.