Iran Conditions Strait of Hormuz Reopening on US Compliance Amid Saudi-Turkish-Pakistani Defense Pact

Iran's Revolutionary Guards spokesperson declared on Saturday that reopening the Strait of Hormuz depends entirely on the United States meeting all of Iran's conditions, dismissing any connection to talks with Oman. This statement follows Iranian threats that the newly signed defense alliance between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan will fail to protect Saudi Arabia. Concurrently, tensions between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi rebels in Yemen are escalating, with the Yemeni army announcing a large-scale operation against the terrorist group, mainly around the capital, Sana'a.

Mahmoud Nabavian, a member of Iran's parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, tweeted that Saudi rulers must realize that neither American bases nor their allegiance to the US will provide them security. The UN special envoy for Yemen, Hans Grundberg, warned yesterday that Yemen faces the highest risk of renewed conflict since the April 2022 ceasefire, citing recent Houthi attacks on Saudi and Yemeni government forces and renewed assaults on commercial ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

The Houthis confirmed an attack on a Saudi military base in eastern Yemen, targeting warehouses, vehicles, and equipment at the San al-Jin camp north of Marib city. Against this backdrop, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan announced a joint defense pact after over a year of negotiations. The agreement, signed in Mecca with the attendance of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, states that an armed attack on any one of the three countries will be considered an attack on all, enhancing regional deterrence and security cooperation.

A Saudi source told CNN that Riyadh is preparing for possible coordinated attacks by the Houthis and Iranian-backed Iraqi militias, with intelligence reports indicating imminent strikes on civilian infrastructure, energy facilities, ports, and airports. The source noted meetings between Iraqi, Houthi, and Revolutionary Guard officials, alongside missile and drone movements, possibly aimed at undermining de-escalation talks or reflecting internal Iranian power struggles.

Arab media reported that Iran plans to soon officially declare control over the Strait of Hormuz. Negotiators told Israel's Channel 13 that the outcome will be either a temporary agreement on the strait or an escalation to war, more severe than previous conflicts. A senior US official told CBS that any temporary deal would not include transit fees. An informed source told Al-Arabiya that the agreement would extend to 60 days, allowing ships to use the closest maritime passage to Iran without paying fees, and regional parties might assist in mine clearance and technical measures.