Iran Escalates Proxy Attacks to Pressure US Without Direct Confrontation

Since the collapse of the ceasefire, Iran has intensified attacks through its proxies against US allies in the Middle East, expanding the conflict to countries like Egypt. According to two senior Iranian officials speaking to The New York Times, these attacks are part of a secret, phased plan developed during the ceasefire to escalate if the US increased its strikes. The goal is to make the war as costly as possible for then-President Donald Trump.

The officials revealed that commanders from Iran's Quds Force held online meetings with leaders of Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Shiite militias in Iraq, coordinating attacks while Quds advisors operated alongside proxies on the ground. Iran has tried to fill gaps left by Hezbollah’s weakened forces after its conflict with Israel, while also operating from militia bases in Iraq. Recently, US and Saudi forces jointly targeted these militias in Iraq, killing several Quds Force members, whose coffins were draped in Iranian flags.

Despite heavy losses since October 2023, Iranian proxies have demonstrated resilience, maintaining the ability to reorganize and create instability. Each proxy group operates with varying degrees of independence: the Houthis are the most autonomous, Hezbollah closely coordinates with Iran, and Iraqi militias fall in between. Experts told The Times that attacks, including missile and drone strikes on US bases, are deliberately designed to avoid direct confrontations that could provoke severe retaliation against Iran.

Iran’s strategy aims to disrupt regional oil exports, raise fuel prices in the US ahead of midterm elections, and reduce revenues for Washington’s Arab allies. For example, Saudi Arabia has rerouted much of its oil exports through the Red Sea after the Strait of Hormuz became largely inaccessible. The Houthis declared a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia on July 20, enforcing it with missile and drone attacks. Egypt’s Suez Canal also came under threat after drone strikes hit oil tankers, though Iran denied responsibility.

Additionally, Iran’s proxy network serves ideological goals: pushing US forces out of the region, damaging Israel, and shielding Iran from direct attacks. However, these strategies have not fully succeeded, especially following setbacks such as the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime and the weakening of Hamas and Hezbollah.