Iran Intensifies Attacks on Gulf States to Pressure US Amidst Regional Tensions
Iran and the United States have escalated their conflict, with Tehran reinstating a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz and Washington reimposing sanctions aimed at strangling the Islamic Republic. Iran has expanded its missile and drone attacks beyond Bahrain and Kuwait to include Qatar, Oman, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates, while Saudi Arabia remains relatively calm but may face future escalation. Recent incidents include missile interceptions in Kuwait, explosions in Bahrain, missile alerts in the UAE, destruction of US-owned logistical sites in Oman, missile strikes in Jordan, and attacks on Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the largest US airbase outside the US.
Experts like Dr. Yoel Guzansky of the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) explain that Iran’s strategy targets the Gulf states as the "soft underbelly" of the US, aiming to pressure Washington economically and politically rather than directly attacking Israel. Dr. Meir Javedanfar from Reichman University notes Iran’s intent to coerce Gulf countries into urging the US to cease attacks on Iran. The ongoing pressure coincides with the US midterm elections in November 2026, where continued conflict could weaken former President Trump’s political standing.
Despite the escalation, Iran has so far avoided targeting Israel, partly due to the heavy damage it sustained from Israel and US operations, including the "Lion’s Roar" campaign, which caused an estimated $270 billion in damages and will require about 12 years to repair. Avraham Blais from the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs highlights Iran’s cost-benefit calculation, choosing to attack Gulf states where retaliation is less severe and the US is reluctant to escalate beyond negotiations.
Iran’s missile capabilities are also limited by damage to its production chains, which were targeted by Israeli strikes. While Iran retains some missiles capable of challenging Israel’s air defenses, its attacks remain focused on the Gulf region. The Revolutionary Guards control these operations, seeking to impose a status quo that benefits Iran economically and strategically. Analysts agree that Iran’s actions reflect a calculated effort to leverage regional influence and economic pressure rather than provoke a broader war.
Looking ahead, the situation remains volatile, with the potential for further escalation in the Gulf and ongoing US-Iran tensions influenced by regional dynamics and upcoming US elections. Both sides appear cautious, balancing military actions with political considerations and negotiations.
