Iran Avoids Direct Attacks on Israel Amid Regional Missile Strikes to Pressure US
In recent days, Iran has launched missiles toward Gulf countries and Jordan, yet notably has refrained from firing directly at Israel. Experts suggest that Tehran currently prefers to avoid provoking a harsh Israeli or allied response by not escalating the conflict with direct strikes on Israeli territory. This strategic restraint reflects Iran’s calculation of the potential heavy costs of attacking Israel directly.
Ela Rosenberg, a terrorism finance and Iranian economy expert at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs and a member of the Deborah Forum, explained that Iran understands the severe consequences that would follow a direct attack on Israel. While such an attack remains possible, Iran’s current approach is to exert indirect pressure on the United States through its regional allies. By targeting Gulf states, Iran hopes these countries will pressure Washington to seek an end to hostilities.
This pattern of indirect pressure has been evident throughout the current conflict, with missile strikes aimed at Gulf states intended to motivate them to intervene diplomatically with the US. Rosenberg noted reports indicating that Gulf states’ pressure contributed to ending the last round of fighting. The missile attacks also have significant economic impacts on these countries, affecting security perceptions, investments, tourism, and real estate markets, which in turn incentivize them to work with the US to prevent further escalation.
Security officials emphasize that regional countries’ engagement in talks does not imply support for Iran’s regime but reflects their own security and economic interests, especially given a perceived lack of protection from the broader Arab world. Rosenberg also linked this dynamic to the recent warming of ties between some Gulf states and Israel. However, she cautioned that it is too early to rule out the possibility of Iran eventually targeting Israel directly, as the consequences of such a move would be severe and clear to Tehran.
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East remains unresolved, with the US unable to ignore Iran’s actions. Iran’s current missile strategy appears aimed at indirect leverage rather than direct confrontation with Israel, balancing pressure on the US while avoiding immediate retaliation risks.
