Senior military analyst says Iran likely to avoid direct retaliation against Israel

Ron Ben-Yishai, Yedioth Ahronoth’s senior military analyst, said on Sunday on Kol BaRama that he expects Iran not to respond directly to Israel after the IDF strike in Beirut’s Dahiyeh district. Speaking with Natan Meshy and Avi Gledovitch on the program “Achat BeTzaharayim,” he said the backdrop is advancing diplomatic talks on a regional arrangement.

Ben-Yishai said Tehran is weighing its options and, in his view, wants to avoid a wider conflict. “In my assessment, Iran will not respond toward Israel because of the strike in Dahiyeh, in order not to undermine the agreement,” he said. “The Iranians want, at any cost, to avoid war.”

He also warned that the outlook could change if negotiations stall. According to Ben-Yishai, the key variable is the timing of the diplomatic process, and delays in signing a memorandum of understanding could alter Iran’s response. “However, if the signing of the memorandum of understanding is delayed, things can change,” he said.