Iran Conducts Controlled Escalation to Pressure US Without Sparking Regional War

Iran is managing a "controlled and measured escalation" strategy to pressure the United States while avoiding direct attacks on Israel or Saudi Arabia, according to Iran expert Eli Klotzstein. Speaking as a fellow at the Meir Amit National Security Institute, Klotzstein explained that Tehran targets American bases in Jordan and Bahrain but refrains from striking Israeli or Saudi targets to prevent a broader regional conflict. Both sides are cautious, applying pressure without crossing thresholds that could ignite a full-scale war.

A key element of Iran's leverage is its control over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy chokepoint. Klotzstein noted that the US has inadvertently highlighted the strait's strategic importance to Iran, which now views disruption there as a significant pressure tool. Although the US previously imposed heavy economic sanctions that brought Iran close to crisis, the easing of pressure following a memorandum of understanding reinforced Tehran's sense of having a strategic advantage.

Klotzstein argued that Iran's hardened stance is not solely about nuclear issues but also reflects frustration over stalled diplomatic talks and unmet economic expectations due to competitors overtaking Iran in the Chinese oil market. In Washington, perceptions have shifted, with officials doubting Iran's commitment to agreements and seeking to restore deterrence after diplomatic efforts faltered. Both sides are influenced by considerations of national pride and reputation.

Security concerns include Iran's underground nuclear facility near Natanz, known as the "Makoosh Summit," which is deeper and more fortified than the Fordow site and may be impervious to conventional strikes. This raises worries in Israel and the US about the difficulty of neutralizing Iran's uranium enrichment capabilities.

Looking ahead, Klotzstein believes the US aims to maintain prolonged economic pressure rather than engage in a large-scale war, hoping to bring Iran to its knees over time. He suggests that the current US political climate, including President Trump's broader latitude and public expectations of a long conflict, supports this strategy. Trump is focused on preventing energy price spikes and improving his political standing, seeing little to lose in continuing the pressure campaign against Iran.