Iran Seeks Regional Hegemony Through Control of Strait of Hormuz Amid Rising US Tensions

Military tensions between Washington and Tehran have escalated following a series of reciprocal attacks, but the core struggle is unfolding beneath the surface. Iran's ambitions extend beyond merely lifting economic sanctions; it aims to establish absolute regional dominance by controlling strategic global shipping routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran views recent attacks as proof of its strategic resilience and is attempting to assert itself as the dominant power in the Gulf.

For the Iranian regime, control over the Strait of Hormuz has become a higher priority than the tens of billions of dollars in sanctions relief offered by the Trump administration. Iran is playing a long-term game, believing it has solidified its regional hegemony after the conflict that began in February failed to achieve the objectives of the US and Israel. Tehran expects that controlling this vital waterway and, by extension, the Gulf economies will lead to international recognition of its new status, even if American sanctions remain in place, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal.

Iranian officials have issued clear warnings: Ebrahim Azizi, head of the Iranian parliament's National Security Committee, stated that recognition of the new Iranian order in the Strait is the only path forward. Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, parliament speaker and chief negotiator with the US, emphasized that the strait will only open under "Iranian arrangements," not American threats. Experts like Karim Sadjadpour from the Carnegie Endowment note that Tehran's lesson from the conflict is that concessions come through coercion, attacking neighbors, threatening the strait, and driving up oil prices. This approach echoes Iran's tactics during the 1980s Iran-Iraq war, using conflict to eliminate internal rivals and consolidate Ayatollah rule.

Internally, Tehran faces uncertainty. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has been absent from public view since being wounded in February attacks, creating a leadership vacuum and chaotic decision-making. At the funeral of his father, Ali Khamenei, delegations from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman were subjected to Quranic verses chosen to insult them, highlighting the regime's hardline stance. Gulf states now recognize the gravity of the situation; with the US rescinding waivers on Iranian oil sales, further strangling Iran's economy, they see no choice but to coexist with Tehran. Raz Zimmt from the Institute for National Security Studies described the situation as confronting "geographical tyranny."

Experts warn that any small misstep could ignite a broader conflict. Former CIA official Mark Polimeropoulos summarized the risk: Iran is betting that Trump will avoid full-scale war, but if any exchange results in significant American casualties, the dynamics could shift dramatically, making the situation highly volatile.