Iran Advances Nuclear Program Amid Rising US-Iran Tensions in Strait of Hormuz

Danny Sitrinovitch, an Iran and Shiite axis researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, discussed the escalating conflict between the US and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz in a June 2024 interview. He emphasized that Iran is unlikely to back down in the current confrontation, which centers on control over the strategic strait. Sitrinovitch noted that prior to recent US operations, the Strait of Hormuz was open to shipping, but it has now become the focal point of the dispute, with Iran willing to pay a high price to maintain dominance.

The ongoing exchanges involve US retaliatory strikes targeting Iranian control capabilities such as radar and missile launch sites, primarily in southern Iran and coastal areas, aiming to weaken Iran's ability to threaten tanker passage. Iran, in turn, has attacked US bases in the Gulf but avoided strikes on the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Sitrinovitch warned that despite the aggressive attacks, both sides seem intent on preserving the possibility of negotiations, though the risk of escalation remains high if the intensity continues.

He explained that the US is conducting a prolonged campaign to degrade Iran's capabilities over weeks, while regional actors like Qatar and Oman work behind the scenes to prevent further escalation. Sitrinovitch also cautioned against Israeli involvement, suggesting it would broaden the conflict and complicate US diplomatic efforts. Regarding Iran's nuclear program, he highlighted satellite imagery showing Iran advancing uranium enrichment activities at a new, harder-to-target facility, signaling significant progress despite the lack of international oversight for a year. He stressed that the nuclear developments should be a major concern and the primary focus of attention moving forward.

Sitrinovitch concluded that the situation largely depends on US President Donald Trump's decisions, with no indication of Iranian willingness to compromise, and that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears unconcerned about the current tensions.