Iran Strengthens Proxy Militia Control Amid Ceasefire to Pressure US

During the recent ceasefire between the US and Iran, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) generals held secret discussions with commanders of pro-Iranian militias across the Middle East to prepare for a potential escalation if the conflict resumes. Senior IRGC Quds Force commanders conducted online conferences with leaders of Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Shiite militias in Iraq, coordinating attacks designed to avoid direct clashes with American or Israeli forces. This strategy aims to expand the conflict and impose a heavier cost on the US.

Iran has been working to fill gaps within Hezbollah caused by recent losses in its conflict with Israel by embedding IRGC commanders directly into Hezbollah’s leadership council. This move has tightened Tehran’s control over the group. Simultaneously, Iran is reinforcing its influence in Iraq through Shiite militias, even as the US seeks to integrate some of these militias into official Iraqi security forces.

The broader regional strategy involves increasing pressure on US allies and destabilizing the Middle East without triggering full-scale war. Recent attacks include strikes on a major Saudi oil facility, attacks on gas tankers near Egypt’s Suez Canal, and missile launches targeting US bases in Jordan. The Houthis have declared a naval blockade against Saudi shipping and launched drones and missiles to enforce it, also impacting shipping routes through the Suez and Mediterranean.

Iranian officials publicly acknowledge a shift in conflict dynamics, describing the militias as chess pieces to be strategically deployed to maximize influence. The goal is to raise tensions and economic pressure, particularly by disrupting oil exports and raising fuel prices in the US, while avoiding direct military confrontation. Analysts believe Iran and its allies see the current US reluctance to escalate as an opportunity to strengthen their regional foothold and prepare for future conflict phases.