Iran Uses Ceasefire to Rebuild Missile Arsenal and Prepare for Possible Escalation

A security source told N12 that Iran is leveraging the current ceasefire to restore its ballistic missile production capabilities. Tehran is focusing on manufacturing inexpensive, liquid-fueled missiles that are simpler to produce and operate compared to advanced solid-fueled or cluster warhead missiles. The source noted that the United States is tolerating attacks and threats against ships in the region, and Iran is not afraid to escalate the conflict further.

In parallel, Iran is rapidly developing its nuclear site at Mount Kamoukh, intending to relocate uranium enrichment activities there. Estimates suggest Iran currently possesses over a thousand missiles capable of reaching Israel, along with a larger stockpile of shorter-range missiles. Iran is also strengthening its proxies, particularly the Houthis in Yemen, who have enhanced their military capabilities to threaten maritime freedom and the Bab al-Mandeb strait.

The Iranian strategy aims to counter the economic and military blockade imposed by the Trump administration, signaling a tit-for-tat approach targeting the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb. The source warned that if regional countries adapt to the blockade, Iran may intensify its campaign, showing no hesitation to enter a new conflict. Maintaining a status quo without significant gains could endanger the regime.

Iran continues to support its proxies, including Hezbollah and Shiite militias in Iraq, pressuring Baghdad to halt militia disarmament. The source emphasized that Iran will not remain passive under economic strangulation and may escalate to open hostilities if its efforts to break the siege fail. Initial targets in such a scenario could include regional states like Jordan and eventually Israel.