Roadmap for Gaza Leaves Hamas Disarmament Ambiguous Amid Israeli Security Concerns

The peace roadmap published by the Peace Council outlines a goal of unified governance, law, and weapon control in Gaza but remains vague on key details, allowing both the US administration and Hamas to claim progress. The document avoids explicitly stating "disarmament" of Hamas, instead calling for the "decommissioning and storage" of heavy weapons, military production sites, warehouses, and tunnels. It specifies that only the newly formed National Committee for Gaza Management may hold or control weapons, but fails to clarify what "decommissioning" entails or define "heavy weapons," leaving room for interpretation on whether weapons will be destroyed or merely stored.

The ambiguity extends to personal firearms, which are to be registered and regulated under Palestinian law but not necessarily collected, a sensitive issue for Israel given the role of light arms in the October 7 attacks. The roadmap also addresses personnel in the new Gaza police force, requiring vetting and barring militia members but not explicitly excluding Hamas members or affiliates, raising concerns about Hamas maintaining influence within security and civil institutions.

The document does not identify militias by name, and Hamas has indicated it views anti-Hamas Palestinian groups as the militias to be disarmed, potentially using this clause to target rivals. Trust remains a major issue, as Hamas previously projected a desire for calm while secretly preparing for the October 7 assault. Israel insists on strict mechanisms including weapon inventories, continuous monitoring of arsenals, full access to tunnels and production sites, border supervision, and thorough vetting of police and administrators to prevent Hamas from regrouping.

Beyond security, the roadmap envisions the new committee inheriting thousands of public sector employees from Hamas-era governance, preserving their financial rights regardless of political affiliation, and recognizing debts to suppliers and contractors up to $400 million. Questions remain about defining legitimate suppliers, vetting Hamas-linked companies, and funding these payments amid Gaza's devastated economy, with unemployment at 78% and GDP projected to be 84% lower in 2025 compared to 2023.

International bodies estimate Gaza's reconstruction will cost over $71 billion over a decade. Weak oversight risks Hamas exploiting reconstruction funds to rebuild loyalty networks, control contracts, and smuggle dual-use materials. The roadmap could reduce Hamas's power if the new committee truly controls weapons, police, crossings, finances, and tenders, but critical decisions on implementation remain unresolved. Israel views irreversible disarmament and dismantling of Hamas's military, political, and economic infrastructure as the sole measure of success, requiring robust, sustained American enforcement rather than reliance on countries like Qatar and Turkey, whose ties to Hamas raise doubts about their commitment to preventing Hamas's resurgence. Without such guarantees, Israel risks returning to the dangerous status quo preceding October 7.