Hamas Retains Power Behind Scenes in Gaza Under Proposed Peace Roadmap

The recently published "roadmap for completing the implementation of President Trump's peace plan for Gaza," released by the Peace Council on July 31, 2026, is criticized for its vagueness and lack of essential details crucial for Israeli citizens, especially after the traumatic events of October 7, 2023. Key questions remain unanswered, such as the exact definition of "heavy weapons" Hamas is purportedly willing to hand over to the Palestinian technocratic government, the fate of these weapons, and who will oversee their storage and security.

The plan effectively grants Hamas a status in Gaza similar to Hezbollah's in Lebanon, allowing it to maintain armed political influence through its members integrated into the new police force and government institutions, without bearing responsibility for the population's welfare or essential services. Israeli officials and Hamas leaders acknowledge a significant dispute over the sequence of disarmament and Israeli withdrawal to the "yellow line," with Israel demanding disarmament before withdrawal, while Hamas insists Israel must first retreat.

The roadmap envisions a "reliable path" toward Palestinian self-determination and statehood, which Hamas views as a diplomatic and ideological victory, expanding its influence among Palestinians. However, the disarmament plan is questionable, as Hamas has already lost most of its heavy weapons and tunnels during the recent war, with Israel destroying about 70%. The plan allows Hamas to gradually regain some arms, with personal weapons remaining with Hamas members serving as police or licensed by the technocratic government.

Meanwhile, militias and clans allied with Israel and the IDF during the war will be disarmed and barred from government roles. Israel gains little security benefit, as it must fully withdraw from Gaza in phased stages with an undefined timetable and border line, cease military operations including targeted killings, and lose the ability to respond to violations by Hamas or Islamic Jihad. The IDF will have no veto over appointments in the new Gaza government or the right to pursue attackers, even if the technocratic government or international stabilization force fails.

In summary, the Peace Council's roadmap creates a Gaza situation resembling the constraints imposed on Israel in Lebanon, leaving Hamas empowered behind the scenes while limiting Israel's security options.