Regional States Divided Over Renewed Conflict With Iran Amid Gulf Tensions

As tensions with Iran escalate, the United States currently refrains from launching a military strike despite President Donald Trump's threats. The question arises how regional countries view the prospect of renewed conflict with Iran. Israel leads the group strongly supporting action against Iran, citing the ongoing nuclear threat and missile capabilities. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu plans to discuss these concerns with President Trump during their White House meeting in two days.

Close to Israel's stance are the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, both signatories of the Abraham Accords. Bahrain faces near-daily Iranian missile attacks due to hosting U.S. bases and troops, while the UAE perceives Iran as a direct threat. Jordan and Kuwait occupy a middle ground, primarily seeking calm as they are often targets of Iranian retaliatory strikes and oppose renewed warfare.

Saudi Arabia adopts a more cautious approach, having been reluctant about the "Tiger Roar" war and even distancing itself from the U.S. It is mainly preoccupied with its conflict against the Houthis in Yemen and the closure of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. At the opposite end, Qatar and Oman strongly oppose renewed conflict and actively seek to mediate between the U.S. and Iran to prevent war.

Additionally, regional states are primarily concerned about the immediate impact of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait closure rather than Iran's nuclear program or ballistic missiles. Consequently, they are exploring overland export routes for their oil to reduce dependence on sea lanes controlled by Iran and its proxies.