Gulf States Shift Toward Iran After War, Seek New Regional Security Framework

Following a severe conflict with Iran, Gulf states are adopting a surprising strategy of rapprochement with Tehran while cautiously distancing themselves from Jerusalem. The recent war inflicted heavy damage on American bases in the Gulf, caused significant economic losses, and raised fears of further escalation. Regional capitals now recognize that Iranian power is entrenched and are working to establish a new security order that keeps future conflicts off their soil.

Despite Iran’s extensive attacks on many Gulf countries, including Qatar and Oman, both Tehran allies and mediators, the Gulf states are reconsidering their regional dynamics. This shift is not limited to the Gulf; the United States is also reportedly reassessing its military presence in the region after Iranian strikes damaged American bases. Washington may adjust its deployment strategy amid these developments.

The Gulf states’ approach involves reducing exposure to regional conflicts by strengthening ties with Iran and adopting a more cautious stance toward Israel. This does not necessarily indicate siding with Iran but rather an effort to create a regional security framework to prevent future clashes involving Iran, Israel, and the US from spilling into their territories. Iraq has offered to host regional talks including Iran and Gulf states to discuss security and end the war, with Iran signaling openness to such initiatives, conditioned on the withdrawal of foreign forces, primarily US troops.

Economic damage from the conflict has been severe, especially due to Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil export route. Gulf economies like Bahrain’s have deepened their deficits amid disrupted oil exports. The UAE warned against turning the Strait into a "war prize," reflecting widespread concern that great power conflicts could weaponize regional economies and shipping lanes. Oman finds itself in a difficult position, balancing between Iranian demands and US threats.

The US has sought to reassure Gulf allies it will remain engaged and not exclude them from any future understanding with Iran. Meanwhile, Gulf states are pushing for a broader regional security mechanism involving deterrence, air and maritime defense, and crisis management. The UAE continues to deepen strategic ties with Israel, including hosting Israeli air defense systems, while Qatar signals willingness to enhance relations with Iran. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and Oman remain cautious about normalizing ties with Israel, viewing ongoing Israeli conflicts as obstacles.

The Gulf states appear to be avoiding a full strategic alliance with Iran, instead seeking maneuvering space between Tehran, Washington, and Jerusalem. If the ceasefire holds, the next step is expected to be formal security dialogue, likely brokered by Iraq. The Gulf’s message to Iran is a desire for fewer conflicts and regional disruptions, acknowledging Iran’s military strength. To Israel, the message is that normalization is not guaranteed without restraint in regional theaters, as Arab states perceive close cooperation with Israel as increasingly costly politically.