Gulf States Shift Toward Iran After War, Seek New Regional Security Framework

Following a severe conflict with Iran, Gulf states are adopting a surprising strategy of rapprochement with Tehran while cautiously distancing themselves from Jerusalem. The recent war inflicted significant damage on American bases in the Gulf, caused extensive economic harm, and raised fears of further escalation. Regional capitals now recognize that Iranian power is entrenched and are attempting to establish a new security order that keeps future conflicts off their soil.

Most Gulf countries, along with the broader Middle East, emerged battered from the war involving Israel and the US against Iran. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards launched heavy attacks on many Gulf states, including Qatar and Oman, which are Tehran’s allies and mediators. In response, these countries are reconsidering their regional dynamics, seeking to reduce exposure to conflict by strengthening ties with Iran and adopting a more cautious stance toward Israel.

This shift is not necessarily an alignment with Iran but an effort to create a regional security framework to prevent future clashes involving Iran, Israel, and the US from spilling into their territories. Iraq has offered to host regional talks including Iran and Gulf states to discuss security and end the war, with Iran signaling openness to the initiative while demanding foreign forces, mainly US troops, withdraw from the region.

The conflict shattered the Gulf monarchies’ image of stability and prosperity, especially after Iran’s closure of the strategic Strait of Hormuz severely impacted Gulf economies reliant on oil and gas exports. Bahrain, for example, saw its already high economic deficit worsen. The UAE warned against turning the Strait into a "war prize," reflecting widespread regional fears that great power conflicts could weaponize the region’s economy and shipping lanes.

Meanwhile, the US is working to reassure its Gulf allies, with senior officials visiting the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain to emphasize that future US-Iran understandings will not exclude them. The security aspect dominates the rapprochement, with Iran insisting on US troop withdrawal and regional actors emphasizing dialogue over escalation. The UAE deepens its strategic partnership with Israel, including Israeli air defense deployments, while Qatar signals willingness to enhance ties with Iran.

Qatar’s Prime Minister Mohammed Al Thani recently indicated Doha might explore a new security agreement with Iran, potentially altering the US military presence in the region. Gulf states are cautious about normalizing relations with Israel amid ongoing Israeli conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran, viewing Israel under current leadership as a source of regional instability rather than a partner against Iran.

The Gulf’s enhanced influence in Washington allows them greater sway over US policy toward Israel and Iran. Their prevailing approach is to maintain balance, avoid choosing sides outright, and promote dialogue with Iran to reduce tensions and shape a less militarized regional order. This includes signaling to Iran a desire for fewer conflicts and to Israel that normalization depends on restraint in regional arenas. The next likely step, if the ceasefire holds, is advancing structured security talks, probably mediated by Iraq.

In essence, Gulf states are seeking to preserve maneuvering space between Tehran, Washington, and Jerusalem, aiming to prevent future wars from erupting on their soil and acknowledging that Iran’s use of force has yielded tangible results. Normalization with Israel remains uncertain without regional de-escalation, reflecting a cautious recalibration of alliances and security priorities in the post-war Middle East.